Induced traffic by autonomous vehicles
An assessment
Project details
Duration
07.2016-06.2018
Sponsor
external pageFEDRO Federal Roads Office
Staff
Professor K.W. Axhausen, F. Ciari, S. Hörl and F. Becker
Summary
The expected market entry of fully autonomous vehicles by 2030 or 2040 casts doubts on just about all assumptions of current transport planning. The possible replacement of today's large private car fleets by commercial AV-taxi fleets would reduce the generalised costs of travel. The expected increase in the capacity of nodes and links and with it also of speed through lower waiting times and less congestion should increase accessibilities substantially and with this also the number of trips and the number of miles travelled. The mobilisation of today's excluded adolescents and elderly will increase the demand further. The total effect is unclear at this point. The project will try to assess the size of these impacts in two ways. After a literature review of the technologies and of their expected costs it will test the AV acceptance and of their business-models (taxis in different sizes and service levels) with a stated choice experiment. This will be carefully constructed and tested. The sample will be representative. In the second part the models estimated will be integrated into the agent-based simulation and then used in a set of systematically constructed scenarios to estimate the size of the impact. The project will be coordinated as far as possible with the known parallel projects of the SBB and the ASTRA, here especially with the projects under the theme 'Verkehr der Zukunft'.